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The PRS Group

Current list of The PRS Group reports, studies, newsletters and wallcharts


The PRS Group

Political Risk Services (PRS) provides a decision-focused political risk model with three industry forecasts at the micro level. The PRS system forecasts risk for investors in two stages, first identifying the three most likely future regime scenarios for each country over two time periods and then by assigning a probability to each scenario over each time period, 18 months and five years. For each regime scenario, PRS’ expert consultants then establish likely changes in the level of political turmoil and 11 types of government intervention that affect the business climate.

After calculating consolidated scores for all regimes (100% of possibilities), the PRS system converts these numbers into letter grades (on a scale from A+ to D) for three investment areas: financial transfers (banking and lending), foreign direct investment (e.g. retail, manufacturing, mining), and exports to the host country market. PRS’ unique system provides only industry specific forecasts, not a generic macro level assessment, as is usually the case.

Users can customize the PRS forecasting model to individual projects or the particular exposures of a firm with an optional weighting system, adding or subtracting variables and adjusting the model to fit specific firm or project attributes.

PRS Country Reports forecast the risk of doing business in 100 countries. PRS completely revises these 100 reports on a quarterly basis.

Each report includes comments and analysis on recent events, profiles of key political players, and wide-ranging forecast scenarios, as well as basic historical and political background and data on the government, political entities, the environment, and the economy, including key sectors.

THE RATING SYSTEM

A series of risk ratings summarize the in-depth analyses and forecasts provided in each Country Report, consisting of approximately 70 pages. Underlying these risk ratings is the Prince Model (more information available from PRS).

Each Country Report provides the current level and likely changes of the following 17 risk components (12 covering our 18-month forecast and five covering our five-year forecast), which are also used in compiling the risk scores.

18-Month Risk Factors
Twelve factors are analyzed from an 18-month forecast perspective, including political turmoil, which is included in both the 18-month and the five-year forecasts.

Turmoil. Actions that can result in threats or harm to people or property by political groups or foreign governments, operating within the country or from an external base:

  • Riots and demonstrations
  • Politically motivated strikes
  • Disputes with other countries that may affect business
  • Terrorism and guerrilla activities
  • Civil or international war
    • Street crime that might affect international business personnel
    • Organized crime having an impact on political stability or foreign business
Not included in turmoil are legal, work-related labor strikes that do not lead to violence.

Equity Restrictions. Limitations on the foreign ownership of businesses, emphasizing sectors where limitations are especially liberal or especially restrictive.

Operations Restrictions. Restrictions on procurement, hiring foreign personnel, or locating business activities, as well as the efficiency and honesty of officials with whom business executives must deal and the effectiveness and integrity of the judicial system.

Taxation Discrimination. The formal and informal tax policies that either lead to bias against, or special advantages favoring international business.

Repatriation Restrictions. Formal and informal rules regarding the reparation of profits, dividends, and investment capital.

Exchange Controls. Formal policies, informal practices, and financial conditions that either ease or inhibit converting local currency to foreign currency, normally a firm’s home currency.

Tariff Barriers. The average and range of financial costs imposed on imports.

Other Import Barriers. Formal and informal quotas, licensing provisions, or other restrictions on imports.

Payment Delays. The punctuality, or otherwise, with which government and private importers pay their foreign creditors, based on government policies, domestic economic conditions, and international financial conditions.

Fiscal and Monetary Expansion. An assessment of the effect of the government’s spending, taxing, interest rate and other monetary policies. The assessment is based on a judgment as to whether the expansion is inadequate for a healthy business climate, acceptably expansionist, or so excessively expansionist as to threaten inflation or other economic disorder.

Labor Policies. Government policies, trade union activity, and productivity of the labor force that create either high or low costs for businesses.

Foreign Debt. The magnitude of all foreign debt relative to the size of the economy and the ability of the country’s public and private institutions to repay debt service obligations promptly.

    Five-Year Risk Factors
    Four additional factors are analyzed from a five-year forecast perspective. (Turmoil is included in both the 18-month and the five-year forecasts.)

    Investment Restrictions. The current base and likely changes in the general climate for restricting foreign investments.

    Trade Restrictions. The current base and the likely changes in the general climate for restricting the entry of foreign trade.

    Domestic Economic Problems. The ranking of the country according to its most recent five-year performance record in per capita GDP, GDP growth, inflation, unemployment, capital investment, and budget balance.

    International Economic Problems. The ranking of the country according to its most recent five-year performance record in current account (as a percentage of GDP), the ratio of debt service to exports, and the annual percentage change in the value of the currency.

    We use these 17 factors in our summary risk ratings, first estimating the current risk level of each factor and then forecasting the change in its risk level under each of the three most likely regime scenarios. The numerical equivalents of these current and forecast levels are then used to calculate the risk scores.

    Contact Details:

    Order your research from The PRS Group Sales here

    CMSinfo, P&A House, Alma Road, Chesham, HP5 3HB, UK

    Tel: +44 (0)1494 771734  Fax: +44 (0)1494 778994

    E-mail: CMSinfo Sales

    Order your The PRS Group reports here:

    CMSinfo, P&A House, Alma Road, Chesham, HP5 3HB, UK

    Tel: +44 (0)1494 771734 Fax: +44 (0)1494 778994

    E-mail: Keith Wallace

    Current list of The PRS Group reports, studies, newsletters and wallcharts

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    Office Address: Chiltern Magazine Services Ltd., P&A House, Alma Road, Chesham, Bucks. HP5 3HB, UK.

    Telephone: UK +44 (0) 1494 771734 Fax: +44 (0) 01494 778994 e-mail: keithw@cmsinfo.com
    Telephone: USA +(1) 508 861 0401 Fax: +(1) 508 861 0401

    Registered Office: 2a Altons House Office Park, Gatehouse Way, Aylesbury, HP19 3XU, UK
    Registered in England and Wales No. 3240740 VAT No. GB 685 4343 10

    CMSInfo (Chiltern Magazine Services Ltd.) is a company registered at Companies House in England and Wales (Company No. 3240740).
    CMSInfo is also registered in accordance with the Data Protection Act 1998 (registration number R0094104).

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